Bullpen Banter: Adam Dunn and the Hall of Fame
Bullpen Banter: Adam Dunn and the Hall of Fame
Bullpen Banter: Adam Dunn
After a long pause, Bullpen Banter is back. This week, Russ and I discuss Adam Dunn and milestones.
Eugene: I’ve been reading a lot about Adam Dunn and his chances of getting in the Hall of Fame (I’m in the process of comparing his number to the current members of the Hall). One thing I continually see is “he’s a lock if he gets to 500 HRs”. Do you believe this?
Russ: Not at all.
500 was the magic number way back when before the late 80s. I am thinking more of live ball era than steroids. However with PEDs tarnishing the game I think the new guarantee lock is 600. However, if you have 500 home runs and other statistics I can accept it.
I personally would never vote for someone that had the worst batting average ever during one season in MLB history. Would you?
Eugene: No, but a lot of people are giving him real consideration. I’m having a hard time justifying him (without looking at the stat comparison). He’s the modern day Dave Kingman; lots of power and strikeouts. He does walk a ton, but I don’t think that overcomes his short comings – low average, subpar defense being the main 2.
I do think he was underrated in his Reds years, but last season was killer for his career.
Russ: I have a simple question.
If a guy had 1,250 career hits, .200 batting average and 700 home runs, is he a Hall of Famer?
It is the “smell” test. Just like Blyleven as an example, there are some players that are not Hall of Famers.
3,000 hits is still a lock.
300 wins is a lock.
500 saves should be.
Adam Dunn? Come on.
Eugene: That guy would not be in the hall. As of today, Dunn’s average and hits are higher than that.
Look at these numbers and see what you think:
Player A – .262/.356/.490, 563 HR, 1702 RBI, 2597 K, 1375 BB
Player B – .241/.371/.501, 625 HR, 1750 RBI, 3565 K, 2070 BB
Player C – .256/.376/.509, 573 HR, 1584 RBI, 1699 K, 1559 BB
Does one of these look like he’s not a hall of famer?
I did that quickly.
The difference between #1 and #3 against #2 are a few.
1. 1&3 played in a different world where hitting home runs was not what it is today. In the 50s and 60s and into the 70s the home run king was an honor. Back in the day, they had a weekly home run derby on tv. Now they do it once.
2. The live ball is different today.
3. The stadiums are different. Killebrew played in Minnesota. The stadiums then were bigger and you and I both know, the pitching was a lot better with 4 man rotations and less teams.
4. Don’t get my wrong. I like Jim Thome personally. Is he a compiler or a Hall of Famer. Compare him to Griffey Jr. Similiar home run numbers, but same career?
Eugene: #1 Reggie Jackson
#2 Adam Dunn – projected for playing 8 years, using a HR rate that decrease as time goes on; he hits a homer in 29% of his hits as of today. If you project that out, he’s in line for 775; I reduced it since his power is bound to decrease eventually and those homers will probably become doubles, then singles.
I took the weakest 1B and the weakest OF based off numbers (specifically average). We all know that Reggie had his post-seasons as a factor for his entry into the Hall.
I think Thome is a similar player, except he spent more of his career as a DH; Thome needs Edgar Martinez to get in to help his cause.
The era is important, but we’re moving back to an era of dominant pitching. Runs are down and look at the pitching stats; more no hitters/perfect games than we’ve seen in almost a century. You also have to factor in steroids, since they have impacted everything. There are some power hitters that have admitted to/getting caught using them, but you have more lower tier guys getting caught; for every Palmeiro and McGwire, there are 3-4 Melky Cabreras and Freddy Galvis.
Russ: Right…I reversed the numbers. (Don’t you hate when a fly gets in your car?….just saying).
I just don’t see a guy batting under. 250 with 3500k getting in. He would need to have a magical run. Last year bothers me too much.
I just feel the Hall is getting watered down with recent inductees. If the veterans vote people in (like Santo), I love it because they are his peers. Besides, you can project anything…what happens if he has a Don Mattingly back type injury. He was a lock. Now, he has a back brace.
Eugene: I agree. There have been some guys in the last few years that are close to being Hall of Famers, but really should be just short. But this won’t change with the current voting process; you’ll find a guy that gets in because of a weak class. Unfortunately, a lot of the media that votes for these guys will let grudges get in the way. The players that weren’t “nice” to the media usually get penalized for it; I’m expecting this with Bonds and Clemens and we’ve seen it with McGwire. Plus the fact that a guy like Tim Salmon gets any votes is comical; he was a good organizational guy, but not once of the best guys in baseball history.
Russ: Now you make me want to look at Hall of Fame voting and see who actually got votes.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Hall of Famer Mo Vaughn just sounds disgusting.
The following people have received at least one vote for the Hall of Fame and those that have voted for them should have their ballot revoked:
That is since 2007!
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