Prospect Rankings Are Out and Its Buyer Beware

We’re at the time of year now when the various media outlets and fan blogs start releasing their minor league top prospect lists for 2012. Baseball America is clearly the industry standard leader in this venture, popping out their Top 100 lists every year since 1990. (Their number one Number One? Braves left hander Steve Avery).

Whether you subscribe to the professional prognosticators like Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com, Keith Law of ESPN, or those of the “voice of the fan”, who put their own lists together for whatever reason, there is no shortage of articles to read and arguments to participate in. They’re all a waste of time. I’m a BA guy; have been for a long time. I know some of their staff and scouting contributors, and have been fortunate enough to have been asked for my two cents on occasion.

While I almost always don’t agree with all their lists, the format they follow and the way information is presented is consistent from year to year, and that’s really important when tracking the progress of a player from his draft date to his Major League debut. I use my Prospect Handbook throughout the year and it’s invaluable once the minor league season starts, and even more so after the season when some of the top guys end up in the Arizona Fall League.

The rest? Might as well throw a hundred names in a hat and draw; that’s how subjective they are. There are no “baseball” people making them, they are all writers fortunate enough to be funded by ESPN or some other media outlet whose own athletic careers ended well before having a double digit age. Mayo’s tagline on MLB.com refers to him as “MLB.com’s draft and prospect expert.”

There are no experts. Each person’s idea of a player, what each person looks for in a player, is different. Mike, Joe DelGrippo, Frank Russo and I could all sit in the stands in Trenton and watch a Graham Stoneburner start. Afterwards, we’d all agree or disagree on the same points for different reasons. The thing that fries me about some of these guys is they either don’t watch the players, or when they do they don’t know what they’re seeing.

Then they write their articles and sell their books and act like they invented baseball. I’ll give you an example. I found this site recently that is dedicated to minor league baseball and run by a guy who used to work for Bill James and ESPN, and is now part of the conglomerate that is SBNation, along with another former ESPN’er, Rob Neyer. Now, I don’t make it a habit to join websites and blog; other than Dugout Central and this one you won’t find me anywhere. As is the case with prospect rankings, people are fixed in their own ways of thinking and won’t change their minds about anything; the status of Jesus Montero as a player being one example.

I was reading through this site for a while and had signed up for an account because it was right up my alley, a site dedicated to minor league baseball and prospects and nothing else. After a while it became clear this community was no different than those on Bleacher Report or who follow Law or Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus, it’s nothing more than hero worship. Like the followers of Bill James, he can say or do no wrong no matter how wrong he actually is. The leader of this site writes a prospect book and has been for ten years or so. Unlike BA and some others, he doesn’t use the 20/80 scout scale but a letter grade, like you get in school, A, B, C, and so on. That’s really subjective- and leads to more questions than answers- because so much goes into the rankings.

It’s almost impossible to determine why a player is ranked where he is. In his rankings, Montero was given an “A”, the same as Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Now, despite the plus tools they are both known for, they also have plus tools elsewhere in their game; Harper’s arm and Trout’s defense, for example. Whereas, Montero doesn’t even have ONE plus tool. His bat and power have been called “plus” and “elite” in the past, but his performance the past two years in Scranton should put those references out to pasture once and for all. Especially when considering Montero regressed last year across the board from 2010.

I basically asked the moderator in a comment thread on the Montero trade why he gets an A, knowing full well Montero’s best tools fall short of those of Harper and Trout, and their worst tools are decidedly better than Montero’s. He responded by dropping a four letter word on me and cancelling my log-in account. Nice, right? Therein lies the rub. If you’re going to stand on a soap box and proclaim yourself an expert and make money off people on top of it, then you shouldn’t be offended when asked a question.

The internet is anonymous, you have the ability to create a user name without it being a real name, and you have no idea who’s on the keyboard on the opposite end of the discussion. If you consider “closeness to the major leagues” a contributing factor in your rankings, and you rank a player who hasn’t played there yet (Harper) over one who has (Trout or Matt Moore), then you’re contradicting yourself. If you consider someone who is a 65, 60, 50, 40, 30 on the scouting scale to have the same “score” as someone who is an 80, 80, 60, 50, 45, and you’re offended by the question “why”, then you shouldn’t be offended when some of your customers start asking for refunds.

Then again, I’m not paid by some media giant to play follow the leader, so I’m not afraid to say Montero stinks or Jameson Taillon is the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues.

I’m also not afraid to explain why.