Simming the 2012 Season With Out of the Park Baseball 13

Simming the 2012 Season With Out of the Park Baseball 13

Simming the 2012 Season With Out of the Park Baseball 13

Part of the fun of being a baseball fan is speculating about what will happen during the current season. As the marathon that is a baseball season reaches the final stretch, which players and teams will heat up and which ones will cool off? Could we see another situation like last year, when the Cardinals went on an amazing late-season tear that didn’t end until they hoisted another World Series trophy above their heads?

In decades past, we could try to simulate what will happen with such dice games as Strat-o-matic and APBA. Later, software like Micro League Baseball and Earl Weaver Baseball brought the art of simming to the digital realm. Today’s computers, though, are capable of running much more robust simulations, and that’s where Out of the Park Baseball 13 comes in. OOTP 13 not only replicates player performances through a series of ratings for each one, but it also includes player morale, coaches, and other variables that affect the stats too. When you manage a team, you handle everything from the June draft to negotiating contracts and trades to making game-time decisions like when to steal or put on the hit-and-run. (You can also delegate as many of those tasks to the computer as you wish, so you can focus on the things that are most important to you.)

OOTP Developments, which publishes OOTP 13, conducts a season sim event each year in which we invite baseball bloggers to sim the current season in commissioner mode and record the results in a spreadsheet. Commissioner mode is a “god” setting that lets the computer handle all the teams while you watch what happens. It only takes the game about 10 or 15 minutes to simulate until the end of the postseason when using that setting.

This year, I simmed the season an additional 10 times and added my results to the mix, for 29 sims in all. The totals are found in the tables at the end of this article, but here are the highlights first:

In the National League, the Braves were the team to beat, with 13 division titles and a pair of wild card berths. (Only the winner of the wild card play-in game in each league was counted, not the two teams that earned wild cards.) They secured 8 trips to the championship series, ultimately winning it all 5 times, more than any other team in either league.

In the American League, the Rays won the AL East 9 times, second to the Yankees’ 14 titles, but they added another 10 wild card spots, making them the top team. They won the ALCS 7 times and the championship 4 times. The Yankees had 4 championship series trips and a pair of wins.

When looking at individual performances, Carlos Gonzalez led the NL in home runs 7 times and in batting average 4 times, with a Triple Crown in the mix too. Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum tied for the most times with the best ERA (4) while Halladay led the NL in wins 8 times.

Over in the AL, Jose Bautista led the league in home runs the most (8) while Eric Hosmer and Miguel Cabrera tied for the most times atop the batting average list (5 each). Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander tied for tops in ERA (5 each) and CC Sabathia was dominant when it came to racking up the most wins, leading the AL 9 times.

Interesting oddities popped up too, showing how OOTP mimics the anything-can-happen nature of real life baseball. For example, in one sim, cast-off Sergio Mitre led the AL in ERA while in another sim, Roy Oswalt signed with the Giants and ended up leading the NL in wins. And when it came to team performances, the upstart Royals won the AL Central 5 times and secured a wild card berth once, though they never won the championship.

Here’s how the teams and players shaped up. (Some sims had ties in certain statistical categories, so the total will add up to more than 29. In the case of most pitching wins, both leagues had sims where up to three or four players tied.)

NL East winner:   
Braves    13
Phillies    11
Marlins    4
Nationals    1

NL Central winner:   
Reds    11
Brewers    10
Cardinals    8

NL West winner:   
Diamondbacks    11
Giants    10
Dodgers    4
Rockies    4

Winner of NL wild card play-in game:   
Marlins    6
Giants    4
Phillies    4
Reds    4
Brewers    3
Braves    2
Brewers    2
Diamondbacks    2
Nationals    2

Winner of NLCS:   
Braves    8
Giants    5
Brewers    3
Cardinals    3
Diamondbacks    2
Marlins    2
Phillies    2
Reds    2
Dodgers    1
Nationals    1

AL East winner:   
Yankees    14
Rays    9
Red Sox    6

AL Central winner:   
Tigers    15
Indians    7
Royals    5
Twins    1
White Sox    1

AL West winner:   
Angels    14
Rangers    13
Athletics    2

Winner of AL wild card play-in game:   
Rays    10
Red Sox    7
Rangers    6
Angels    2
Yankees    2
Mariners    1
Royals    1

ALCS winner:   
Rays    7
Red Sox    5
Angels    4
Yankees    4
Rangers    3
Tigers    3
Royals    2
Indians    1

Championship winner:   
Braves    5
Rays    4
Red Sox    4
Angels    2
Brewers    2
Diamondbacks    2
Giants    2
Marlins    2
Tigers    2
Yankees    2
Cardinals    1

NL HR leader:   
Carlos Gonzalez    7
Joey Votto    5
Jay Bruce    3
Paul Goldschmidt    3
Ryan Braun    2
Giancarlo Stanton    2
Troy Tulowitzki    2
Justin Upton    2
Mat Gamel    1
Jason Heyward    1

AL HR leader:    (1 tie)
Jose Bautista    8
Miguel Cabrera    4
Mark Teixeira    4
Albert Pujols    3
Nelson Cruz    2
Prince Fielder    2
Adrian Gonzalez    2
Adrian Beltre    1
Adam Dunn    1
Josh Hamilton    1
Paul Konerko    1
Kendrys Morales    1

NL batting avg. leader:    (1 tie)
Starlin Castro    4
Carlos Gonzalez (won Triple Crown once)    4
Joey Votto    4
Ryan Braun    3
Pablo Sandoval    3
Freddie Freeman (won Triple Crown once)    2
Dee Gordon    2
Jay Bruce    1
Chris Heisey    1
Jonathan Lucroy    1
Daniel Murphy    1
Jose Reyes    1
Jose Tabata    1
Justin Upton    1
Neil Walker    1

AL batting avg. leader:   
Miguel Cabrera    5
Eric Hosmer    5
Robinson Cano    4
Josh Hamilton    3
Dustin Pedroia    3
Albert Pujols    2
Billy Butler    1
Angel Cabrera    1
Asdrubal Cabrera    1
Jacoby Ellsbury    1
Joe Mauer    1
Stephen Vogt    1
Kevin Youkilis    1

NL ERA leader:   
Roy Halladay    4
Tim Lincecum    4
Clayton Kershaw    3
Zack Greinke    2
Yovani Gallardo    2
Josh Johnson    2
Stephen Strasburg    2
Adam Wainwright    2
Bronson Arroyo    1
Jose Ascanio    1
Brandon Beachy    1
Chris Carpenter    1
Gio Gonzalez    1
Tim Hudson    1
Jonathan Niese    1
Carlos Zambrano    1

AL ERA leader:    (1 tie)
Felix Hernandez    5
Justin Verlander    5
Jon Lester    4
Matt Moore    4
Jered Weaver    4
CC Sabathia    3
CJ Wilson    2
Danny Duffy    1
Sergio Mitre    1
David Price    1

NL wins leader:    (9 ties)
Roy Halladay    8
Tim Lincecum    5
Josh Johnson    4
Adam Wainwright    4
Mark Buerhle    2
Matt Cain    2
Yovani Galladro    2
Jamie Garcia    2
Zack Greinke    2
Daniel Hudson    2
Clayton Kershaw    2
Mike Leake    2
Gio Gonzalez    1
Jair Jurrjens    1
Ian Kennedy    1
John Lannan    1
Mat Latos    1
Cliff Lee    1
Roy Oswalt (Giants)    1
Johan Santana    1
Stephen Strasburg    1

AL wins:    (11 ties)
CC Sabathia    9
Justin Verlander    4
Yu Darvish    3
Felix Hernandez    3
Jon Lester    3
Ervin Santana    3
Josh Beckett    2
Dan Haren    2
Brandon McCarthy    2
Matt Moore    2
James Shields    2
Scott Baker    1
Derek Holland    1
Luke Hochevar    1
Dustin McGowan    1
Jake Peavy    1
Ricky Romero    1
Max Scherzer    1
Josh Tomlin    1
Jered Weaver    1
CJ Wilson    1

By The Baseball Page
Monday, 18 Jun 2012


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