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World Series Prediction

World Series Prediction

World Series Prediction

Whitey Herzog forecasts a 'strange, strange Series'

The St. Louis dispatch did a interview with the one man who has managed both clubs, Hall of Famer, Whitey Herzog.

80 year old Whitey, who is recovering from a recently fall, started his career with Texas and finished it with St. Louis. He feels, of the 4 Championship series teams, St. Louis has the best 12 players, the best offense and the best starting pitcher, though overall things point towards the Texas Rangers.

St. Louis should not even be in the playoffs, but they got some luck and are now a team of destiny.

In another Article, Bill Chuck, broke down the Rangers and Cardinals using a weighted point system, with Texas showing a decisive edge.

Offensively, the teams are pretty even

There are not any easy outs on either side. I actually think St. Louis has a slight edge.  Thier 3-4-5 middle lineup, featuring the games greatest player, Albert Pujols, is excellent and Freese is a emerging star. Texas, with a beat up Josh Hamilton is more of a "grind it out" offense 1-9. You never know which guy is going to beat you but someone always does.    

Both teams took advantage of weak overall divisions.

The NL Central averaged 77 victories and the AL West 80 victories per team.  

In a few rare occasions these series are decided by bats, but more times than not it is about the pitching. 

Here is why I like Texas in 6 games

Both teams had identical, with 3.79 team ERA's, except St. Louis does not face a designated hitter for 140+ games. The NL League ERA was 3.81, while the AL League ERA was 4.08. That is almost about a 7% differance. 

The WHIP advantage goes to Texas 1.241 to 1.306. With a designated hitter in 3 games this gap could widden.  

The Rangers also lead St. Louis in quality starts and have a deeper rotation.  In a seven game series that will come into play sooner or later.  There is no denying the Cardinal Bullpen has been great in NL playoff's, but you have to start wondering if they will have a burn out effect. They are going to need more than Carpenter to save them from over use. Texas has a roll advantage as well, and baseball players typically are creatures of habit.     

During the NLCS, the Brewers beat themselves with 7 errors in the last two games, which should not have happened. Coming into the series, the Brewers had a big advantage over St. Louis with their Rtot (Runs Above Average - team total for the season) of 24 to -6.  It never came into play in te NLCS.

Ironically, Texas has the same exact advantage but I don't see Texas beating themselves in any game as the Brewers did.   

The last factor is experience.

Texas was here last year. Their season long mission was to get back. Since 1960 four teams have gotten back to the World Series after losing the year before; Oakland in 88-89, LA Dodgers 78-79, Baltimore 69-70 and New York Yankees 60 - 61. Only the Dodgers failed to win it. Historically an edge goes to Texas here as well.

Finally, Texas has my vote for series MVP, Michael Young.  It would only be fitting as he has been here the longest,requested a trade, stayed and had a great season for the Rangers.  

By Tom Hannon
Wednesday, 19 Oct 2011

 

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