Cole Hamels ready to win 2012 Cy Young award
by Scott Butler 2/22/12

2012 Cy Young winner Cole Hamels? Why not? In 2011, his 2.79 ERA ranked sixth in the NL, his WHIP ranked second at 0.99, and he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting.

I looked like a true genius for a while when I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young award in 2011. But when he came up a little short, I received no praise and my brilliance went unnoticed. I bet he wins it this year just to take my credit. Maybe I’ll have to pick Vance Worley this year…

Obviously Hamels is my pick again this year, but is he really a Cy Young candidate? He’s been a good pitcher, but does Hamels really rank up there with Halladay, Lee, or even Kershaw? He’s not there yet, but there are plenty of reasons to believe Hamels will have a monster 2012 season and can win the Cy Young award. Before we look at his stats on paper, we would be remiss if we ignored his obvious maturity.

Mental lessons for Hamels

Hamels was born with a good fastball and one of the best changeups in the game, but in my mind the biggest reason to believe Hamels is a Cy Young candidate is that he is finally ready mentally. Cole proved in the 2008 postseason that he is not afraid of a little pressure, but according to a line in The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, "if you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren't going my way."

Things were not going Cole's way in 2009. Hamels experience failure for the first time in his entire life that season and had no clue to handle it. His body language was terrible, he constantly complained to umpires, and in some cases he even showed up his teammates. Hamels was a textbook case of what not to do.

So, like any good pitcher, Hamels worked on his mental game. Even though his pitching was poor in April of 2010 and he received visits from boo birds, Hamels hung in there. His body language was good, he did not complain to the umps, and never even once lashed out at the fans who booed him despite almost single handedly ending their championship drought two years earlier. Hamels stated in his recent press conference that "it really made me discover who I was. That was the best stepping stone I could ever have in my career to really dig down deep and work harder."

2010 provided more examples. When the Phillies brought Cliff Lee back to town, Hamels was now considered the fourth best starter on his own team. That might have bothered the old Cole Hamels, but the new one barely noticed. And he didn’t whine a bit when his team gave him no run support for the second straight season.

But the best example of his growth in came in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cardinals. In that game, the umpire was squeezing him, the Cardinals were fouling off every pitch within a yard of the plate, and his pitch count rose exponentially. While I threw stuff at the TV, Hamels tuned out the frustration and maintained his cool in six of the toughest innings I can remember. As Hamels himself said, "I knew that every pitch mattered. Every inning mattered. We're not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep."

New pitch, new pitcher

A 10-11 record and 4.32 ERA in 2009 forced Hamels to add another pitch, a cutter, to his arsenal. After some early struggles in 2010 and a 4.08 ERA through June, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in the last three months. Last season, Hamels set season career best marks in ERA, CG, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and SO/BB ratio. Hamels has an ERA of 2.61 in the year and a half since “mastering” the cutter. That mark alone is better than the ERA's 4 of the last 8 Cy Young winners.

Can Hamels keep it going?

But the question remains, is Hamels ready to take the next step towards becoming an elite pitcher? The numbers say Hamels is plenty capable of doing just that.

First of all, Hamels was consistent in 2011. Comparing his averages each month, his WHIP ranged from 0.80 to 1.11, his walks/9 from 1.3 to 2.1, and his hits/9 from 5.9 to 7.6. He was not just lucky.

His overall improvement compared to his career averages is also encouraging. His HR/9 improved from 1.09 to 0.79, his HR/FB from 11.5% to 9.9%, his extra base hit percentage from 8.1% to 6.2%, and his line drive percentage from 18.7% to 15%. Those increases suggest that hitters made weaker contact. Less line drives meant less quality hits and subsequently less extra base hits. Less home runs per fly balls meant he was likely jamming hitters more frequently and keep them off-balance more often.

His walks/9 also improved from 2.26 in his career to 1.83 in 2011, both well in line with Halladay's 1.35 and Lee's 1.62.

Bottom line: Cole Hamels has improved in nearly every facet of his game and that increase has been consistent.

Other factors

Hamels admitted himself during his recent press conference that his sports hernia and loose bodies in his elbow were "both uncomfortable." Common sense tells you that Hamels should pitch even better with those problems resolved.

Finally, how better might Hamels be if got a little run support?

A 2012 Cy Young award for Hamels is a reality

When I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young last year, it was little more than blind faith and hope since he had never performed at quite that level before. But there now exists a year and a half of statistics to back up a Cy Young prediction. I just hope he wins the award after the Phillies lock him up long term and not before the Yankees steal him in free agency.