While what works at the races, angles and tips, isn't always a logical choice, there are some things that you can do and bets you can make that are very logical. Here are a few tips. First of all, it is logical to bet the favorite in a race, but not necessarily to win. The favorites do win more races than any other betting choices. If you key on the favorite in every race your key horse will win about a third of the time and finish in the exacta about half the time while being in the money about three quarters of the time.
Play that one with the right horses in exotics and you may eke out a profit. The key to it all, of course, is which horse to put with the favorite in order to make a profit? While identifying the favorite, or chalk, is easy - it's the horse with the lowest odds, identifying the horse or horses to play with that one to round out your wager is the tricky part.
Here are a few handicapping suggestions that will require a little work to find them, but will also pay well enough in exotics to give you some chance to make a profit. First of all, playing the favorite and second favorite in an exacta may actually hit many winning tickets, but because they are usually the crowd's first choice, and consequently the lowest paying exacta, they just don't usually make a profit in the long run. So let's throw the second favorite out of our combinations.
When keying the favorite on top I advise that you go deep enough in the betting choices to make it pay at least 5-1. Therefore, look at what the exacta with the favorite over the third favorite is paying and only play if the exacta pays at least 5-1. That means at least a $12 payoff with the chalk on top.
Statistically the chalk wins more than it places. If it wins about 33% of the time but is only in the exacta about 50% of the time, well, you do the math. It doesn't appear that the chalk is a very good bet in the bottom of the exacta so why not throw it out? If it wins you want it over a horse at a bit of a price and since it isn't much of a place proposition because it will still be bet down, throw it out once you've used it on top.
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